SNEX | Another Canslim/Minervini Setup on Earnings Eve
SNEX checks every box on the Minervini checklist
STONEX GROUP INC (SNEX | ▲0.66%) is reporting Q2/26 earnings tomorrow, May 6. That single fact shapes everything about how to approach this stock right now, so let’s address it before we look at anything else.
Financial Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing written here constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of any kind. Trading stocks involves significant risk of loss. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past chart patterns are no guarantee of future results.
Buying a stock the day before earnings is a bet, not a setup.
The chart can be perfect. The fundamentals can be excellent. None of that protects you if the number misses by a penny and the stock gaps down 15% at the open. Minervini is explicit on this point: the earnings event itself is the wildcard that invalidates your technical read.
That said, SNEX is worth watching closely. What happens after tomorrow’s report may create a genuinely clean entry.
The Trend Template Check
Before anything else, the chart has to pass. Here’s where SNEX stands:
Price ($105.88) is well above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages ✓
The 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA, and both are trending upward ✓
The stock is trading within striking distance of its 52-week high ✓
From the 52-week low near $63 to today’s $105.88, that’s a gain of approximately 68% — comfortably above the 30% minimum threshold ✓
ChartMill Relative Strength of 91.04 puts $SNEX in the top 9% of all stocks ✓
Eight-for-eight on the Trend Template. This is a Stage 2 uptrend by the book.
The Fundamental Picture
The quarterly numbers tell a clear story of reaccelerating growth:
Revenue followed the same pattern. Q1/26 sales came in at $724.4M, up 47.21% versus the prior quarter, with a 14.87% positive surprise versus consensus. After a soft patch in mid-2025, both EPS and revenue growth reaccelerated sharply. That’s the kind of momentum Minervini’s fundamental criteria are designed to identify.
The Q2/26 consensus estimate calls for EPS of $1.52 (+61.30% growth estimate) on sales of $665.68M. High bar. A beat of that magnitude - or guidance that raises the ceiling further - would validate the thesis entirely.
The Technical Setup
Price action over the past several weeks shows a tight consolidation just below the CR1 resistance level at $106.14. Support has held consistently above CS1 at $103.65. That’s a range of roughly 2.5%, the kind of Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) behavior that signals supply is drying up near the highs.
The move that preceded this consolidation was substantial: SNEX ran from the $75 area to current levels without a meaningful pause. The current ‘tight-range-action’ after a strong trending move is constructive. Volume has contracted during the consolidation, which is exactly what you want to see before a potential breakout.
The pivot point to watch is a decisive close - or intraday breakout with follow-through - above $107.92.
How to Play the Earnings Event
This is where the setup diverges into two scenarios, and the distinction matters.
Scenario 1: Strong Results, Gap Up or Breakout
Assume tomorrow’s numbers beat estimates. The stock gaps up or breaks out above $107.92 on heavy volume.
Do not chase it.
A strong earnings gap is not a clean entry point by Minervini’s standards. The spread between the open and the prior close represents volatility you don’t control and risk you can’t properly size. Your stop-loss placement becomes arbitrary.
The better play? Wait for a retest of the breakout level. After a gap up, the market often pulls back to test the area it just broke through.
If SNEX gaps above the current high and then retreats to retest that zone on declining volume - holding the level and bouncing - that’s your entry. Volume drying up on the pullback is the confirmation signal. That retest is a cleaner pivot, a tighter stop, and a better risk/reward setup than buying into euphoria at the open.
Scenario 2: Results Disappoint or Reaction is Negative
The stock gaps down or sells off hard on volume. Walk away.
A broken earnings reaction invalidates the near-term setup regardless of how good the chart looked the day before. Let it reset. If the business remains strong, a new base will form. You can revisit it in 4-8 weeks.
Risk Management
If you do enter on a post-earnings retest:
Initial stop: Below the current candle low or - more defensive - below the current trading range (~$102.00), whichever is more recent and relevant at the time of entry
Position size: Never risk more than 1-2% of your total account on a single trade
Pilot position: Start with half your intended size. Add to the position only after it moves in your favor
Minervini’s rule is straightforward: your first priority is never losing big. The setup can be excellent and still fail. Small losses are part of the process. Large ones are optional.
For more on the Minervini SEPA methodology and how to screen for these setups using ChartMill, check out the full series on ChartMill.com.
Bottom Line
SNEX checks every box on the Minervini checklist, Stage 2 trend, reaccelerating fundamentals, VCP-like consolidation near highs, and a Relative Strength in the top decile. The obstacle is simple: earnings are tomorrow.
The disciplined approach is to watch, not act. Let the market digest the number. If results are strong and the stock breaks out, the best entry isn’t at the open, it’s at the retest. That’s the setup worth waiting for.
Trade Safe!