HLX (Helix Energy Solutions): Chart looks constructive. Fundamentals don't.
Full Minervini SEPA breakdown.
Running through my Minervini Screens, the chart on HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GROUP (HLX | ▲0.40%) caught my eye this morning. Moving averages stacked cleanly, tight consolidation near the highs, volume drying up during the base. On the surface it looks like a setup worth watching.
But when you run the full SEPA checklist, the picture gets more complicated.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Nothing here should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Trading stocks involves significant risk of loss.
The Trend Template - passes
All eight criteria are met:
Price above the 150-day ($8.21) and 200-day ($7.73) MA ✅
150-day MA above 200-day MA ✅
200-day MA trending upward ✅
50-day MA ($9.79) above both longer-term MAs ✅
Price above the 50-day MA ✅
61% above its 52-week low (~$6.25) ✅
Only 4% below its 52-week high (~$10.50) ✅
HLX is in Stage 2. No argument there.
The chart pattern
From late December 2025 to mid-March 2026, HLX ran from roughly $6.50 to $10.50, about 62% in 11 weeks. Since then it’s been consolidating in a tight range of approximately 10% for 9-10 weeks, hugging the 10-day MA with volume contracting. The 50-day MA is catching up from below and could act as a launching pad.
On technicals alone this looks like a flat base or early VCP formation. Pivot would be around $10.50, the high of the consolidation.
The sector; actually a green light
HLX sits in the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sub-industry, and the group data is genuinely strong.
Industry Strength Score of 92/100. Six-month relative rank of 95%, meaning this sub-industry has outperformed 95% of all sub-industries over the past six months. 31.8% of the 44 members are making new highs right now, with 0% making new lows.
Minervini is clear on this: you want to fish in the best pond. On that front, HLX qualifies. The sector is working.
That said, the Industry Growth Score comes in at just 56/100. Average profit margins of 8.9%, average ROE of 13.6%. Decent, not exceptional. The sector is moving on price momentum and an offshore cycle recovery, not on broad fundamental acceleration. The average P/E of 31.1 tells the same story: valuation has run ahead of earnings. So the sector gets you in the door, but it doesn’t do the fundamental heavy lifting for you.
The fundamentals, this is where it breaks down
Minervini is clear: the chart is the action signal, but the fundamentals are the selection filter. And HLX doesn’t pass that filter right now.
Q1/26 results (reported April 23): Find the latest report here
EPS: -$0.09 (loss) vs $0.02 a year ago — year-over-year deterioration
Revenue: $288M vs $278M in Q1/25 (just +3.5% growth)
Gross margin: 3% vs 10% a year ago (significant compression)
Adjusted EBITDA: $32M vs $61M in Q1/25 (down 47% year-over-year)
Shallow Water Abandonment segment: -42% gross margin
After two decent quarters (Q3/25: $0.15 EPS, Q4/25: $0.18 EPS), Q1/26 is a step backward. There’s no quarterly EPS growth of 25%+, no acceleration, and margins are moving in the wrong direction.
Within a sector that already scores only 56/100 on growth, HLX is underperforming even that modest benchmark.
The balance sheet is genuinely strong, $501M cash, negative net debt of $198M, $59M free cash flow in Q1. That’s not nothing. But a clean balance sheet doesn’t create a superperformance phase on its own.
Bottom line
The sector is in the right place. The chart is in the right shape. The fundamentals aren’t there yet.
HLX is a technically sound stock in a leading industry, sitting on a fundamentally weak quarter. Without earnings backing up the price action, any breakout above $10.50 is speculative rather than SEPA-confirmed. I’m keeping it on the watchlist.
ChartMill Trade Desk - Kristoff
This article was first published on ChartMill.com on May 26, 2026, before the market opened. The author does not hold a position in the stock as of today’s publication.